#Putin Visits #Battlefield and Vows to Take More of #Ukraine – The New York Times nytimes.com/2026/07/03/world…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jul 4, 2026
Day: July 4, 2026
Will Belarus once again become the launchpad for a Russian offensive on northern Ukraine, and could Belarusian troops be pushed into the fight despite the risks to Lukashenko’s survival?
The memory of 2022 still hangs over Minsk. Belarus allowed Russian forces to stage the assault on Kyiv, and that decision tied Lukashenko’s fate even more tightly to the Kremlin. As Russia faces mounting pressure on the battlefield, the idea of reopening a northern axis has returned to the conversation.
Belarusian forces are not capable of a large scale offensive on their own. Any operation from Belarus would require Russian troops, Russian armor, and Russian logistics. That means Moscow would need to pull units away from its current fronts, creating vulnerabilities that Ukraine could exploit. The move would also force Ukraine to divert forces northward, stretching its already limited manpower. A Russian mobilization would solve that issue for Russia, while creating other problems.
Lukashenko has reasons to resist. He has tried to maintain a fragile balance between dependence on Moscow and limited engagement with Western actors. Sending Belarusian soldiers into Ukraine would destroy that balance and expose his regime to unpredictable consequences.
Still, Putin is pressuring Belarus to do more. If Russia decides that a new axis is necessary to change the dynamics of the war, Minsk may have little choice but to comply. Ukraine must be ready for the possibility, even if the probability remains uncertain
— @joni_askola Jul 4, 2026
Germany accelerates nationwide ballistic‑missile defense network with Israeli Arrow system. The Arrow 3, one of Israel’s most advanced air defense systems, is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at altitudes of over 100 km. and with a reported range of up to 2,400 km.
✍️ : @AAhronheim
jpost.com/defense-and-tech/a…— @Jerusalem_Post Jul 4, 2026
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🇵🇱🇷🇺La Russie préparerait une agression de la Pologne et de l’OTAN.
Dans une telle hypothèse, une réponse strictement défensive risquerait d’encourager de nouvelles provocations si elle ne rétablissait pas rapidement la dissuasion.
L’enjeu serait de convaincre immédiatement le Kremlin qu’une attaque contre un État membre de l’OTAN entraîne un coût militaire largement supérieur au bénéfice politique recherché. C’est précisément le principe sur lequel repose la crédibilité de la dissuasion collective.
Si la Russie tente le diable, il faudra la remettre à sa place immédiatement et ne pas se perdre en négociations qui lui feraient gagner du temps. Il faudra s’attaquer à Kaliningrad, Moscou et St Petersbourg et imposer un coût militaire inacceptable même pour la Russie.
Cela fait des années que j’alerte sur le risque d’une provocation de ce type par la Russie, avec des scénarios hybrides notamment. Il semblerait que l’on s’en rapproche petit à petit et je pense que ce n’est qu’une question de temps avant qu’une confrontation entre l’OTAN et Moscou éclate.
La Russie veut se placer elle-même en trajectoire de collision avec nous, elle devra en payer le prix.The Telegraph (@Telegraph)Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.
Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.
🔗: telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…— https://x.com/Telegraph/status/2072983935106105541
— @ObsDelphi Jul 4, 2026
UPDATE:🇩🇪🇺🇦⚡
Germany has become second largest (European) bilateral military donor of Ukraine’s War against Russian forces.
🚨Germany spending $15b (annually) on Ukrainian Leopard tanks, artillery, and joint production of Drones or Missiles.— @RealWestern2003 Jul 4, 2026
⚡️As of early July 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ systemic strike campaign has reached new levels
📈 As a result of the attacks, 42.74% of the total design capacity of oil refining was disabled.
💥 Over the past month, 8 oil refineries have been successfully attacked.
🛢️More than 60 RRCs (tanks) have been eliminated or critically damaged, of which 58% are with oil products and 42% are with crude oil.
💵 Over the year (since August 2025), the total losses of the industry have reached 13.5 billion US dollars.
✅Consequences for the aggressor:
⛽ Fuel crisis.
📉Reduction in production.
🔧 Repair deadlines are constantly postponed due to the inability to obtain the necessary spare parts and equipment.— @UkrReview Jul 4, 2026
🚨⚡️
Saudi Arabia has transferred 5 used Boeing 777 wide-body aircraft to Iran.— @RealWestern2003 Jul 4, 2026
BREAKING🇸🇦🇮🇷🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia and Iran normalisation their bilateral relations to restore full diplomatic ties, reopen embassies, and revive the 2001 security agreement plus broader cooperation in trade, economy, and culture.
🚨Iran reportedly agreed to limit Houthi attacks on Saudi targets over Red Sea trades.
— @rkmtimes Jul 4, 2026
🇷🇺 Moscow has data according to which the Baltic countries provided Ukrainian UAVs with their airspace to attack Russian civilian infrastructure, – Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin
”We have verified data that Latvia and other Baltic republics have already provided their air corridors for Ukrainian drones that attacked our country’s civilian infrastructure”, he said.
— @news_az Jul 4, 2026