#Epstein 👇
— @Ceuninck4 Jul 4, 2026
Month: July 2026
In Russia, there are fewer and fewer untouchables!
On July 2, Russian sources reported that Konstantin Makhov – the “right-hand man” of Arkady Rotenberg, one of the billionaires closest to Putin – had been detained in Moscow.
Arkady Rotenberg, 74, is Putin’s childhood friend and former judo partner. After Putin came to power, the businessman made his fortune from major government contracts. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Rotenberg has become the main beneficiary of the wave of nationalization of private businesses.
Today, Rotenberg is considered one of Russia’s wealthiest and most influential businessmen. According to Forbes, his net worth is estimated at $5.5 billion.
Makhov is not just “Rotenberg’s manager.” He is the man at the center of the entire corporate structure surrounding the largest construction project in Russia’s gas and petrochemical industry – the Ust-Luga Ethane-Containing Gas Processing Complex.
Makhov is CEO of RusGazDobycha, the Baltic Chemical Complex, and the National Gas Group, as well as chairman of the board of RusKhimAlliance.
The Ust-Luga Ethane-Containing Gas Processing Complex is what Gazprom has left instead of the European market: 45 billion cubic meters of gas processing capacity per year, 13 million tons of LNG, and up to 2.8 million tons of polyethylene.
According to the investment project plan approved by the Russian government in January 2024, the total cost is 4.9 trillion rubles (~ $63.45 billion). Of that amount, 900 billion rubles (~ $11.67 billion) comes directly from the National Wealth Fund at 6% annual interest.
As a reminder, the Central Bank’s key interest rate at the time was 16%. That is, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund is lending money to a project linked to the Rotenberg circle at a quarter of the market rate of interest.
Makhov’s detention may therefore concern control over the largest state financial resource available to the real sector at a time when budget reserves are shrinking and the National Wealth Fund continues to dwindle.
We can ponder what this detention means.
The first theory is that it is a signal to Rotenberg. There are rumors that Arkady Rotenberg has allegedly lost direct access to Putin and unsuccessfully tried to restore contact through Ilham Rahimov.
Under this logic, detaining his closest manager is a classic tactic of the system: when dissatisfied with a patron, they target someone from his inner circle.
The second version is pressure on the management of the cluster itself. This version is supported by documented evidence: in March 2025, the Prosecutor General’s Office filed a lawsuit to forfeit the assets belonging to Kirill Seleznev, CEO of RusKhimAlliance and a former member of Gazprom’s management board.
If Makhov has now also been detained, then within a year and a half the security services have targeted both top figures of the same project. This looks like an internal struggle within the system for control over the flow of state funds.
If this is a case against Makhov personally, it will remain narrow: incidents from 2021-2023, Article 159 or 160, fraud or embezzlement involving contracts. He will quietly be removed from his positions, and no one will touch Rotenberg’s business structures.
But if Rotenberg is the target, the case will begin to expand beyond Ust-Luga and reach Russian Railways contractors and the construction legacy of Mostotrest, and more people from the orbit could be detained.
What the Makhov case shows most clearly is that the spiders in the jar have begun to devour one another.
When external rents shrink – and it is shrinking – the internal struggle over what remains intensifies. There are no untouchables. There are only those whose turn has not yet come.
Compromising material on everyone has been collected in advance and is waiting for a political order. Loyalty to Putin offers no protection, because only usefulness offers protection – and in a shrinking system, usefulness is a variable concept.
But the war requires more and more money, which means that even members of Putin’s inner circle are now at risk of having their wealth seized.
— @Gerashchenko_en Jul 4, 2026
Summary
Global power dynamics are shifting as Poland reassesses its support for Ukraine, citing security burdens and historical disputes. Meanwhile, Iranian officials claim victory over the U.S. in a recent agreement, and Russia’s prolonged military campaign in Ukraine continues with mocking rhetoric. The U.S. marks its 250th Independence Day amid domestic political speculation and international scrutiny.
Key Stories
Poland reassesses Ukraine aid amid security and diplomatic tensions — Poland is scaling back new financial commitments to Ukraine, prioritizing its role in defending NATO’s eastern flank and addressing domestic security costs. The move follows diplomatic friction, including historical disputes and Ukraine’s proposed efforts to reset bilateral relations.
Iranian officials declare victory over U.S. in recent agreement — Iranian officials celebrated a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding as a defeat for America, signaling a potential shift in regional influence. The rhetoric suggests Tehran views the agreement as a strategic win amid ongoing geopolitical rivalries.
Russia’s prolonged Ukraine war mocked as progress stalls — Russian military leadership continues to claim progress in Ukraine, now in its 1,593rd day, despite widespread skepticism. Mocking social media posts highlight the disconnect between official narratives and the reality of the conflict’s duration.
U.S. celebrates 250th Independence Day amid domestic and global challenges — Americans marked the 250th anniversary of Independence Day with celebrations, while social media discussions reflected concerns over domestic political stability and international perceptions of U.S. leadership.
Speculation grows over U.S. political instability and executive overreach — Social media commentary questioned potential abuses of power by U.S. leadership, using hypothetical scenarios to underscore concerns about unchecked authority. The discourse reflects broader anxieties about institutional resilience.
Summary
Ukraine intensifies long-range drone attacks on Russian oil and military infrastructure, signaling a strategic shift to weaken Russia’s economic and logistical capacity. Meanwhile, Putin confronts mounting domestic and political challenges, including manpower shortages, dissent signals, and high-stakes bets against his leadership, suggesting a potential tipping point in the conflict.
Key Stories
Ukraine targets Russian oil and military sites near St Petersburg — Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on oil depots and military facilities close to Russia’s second-largest city, escalating long-range attacks to disrupt fuel supplies and logistics. Zelenskyy framed the strikes as economic sanctions to pressure Putin’s regime.
Putin may resort to mass mobilization as battlefield losses mount — Analysts suggest Putin could soon order a politically risky mobilization to address Russia’s manpower shortages, despite public opposition. The move may indicate desperation to salvage the invasion amid Ukrainian advances.
High-stakes bet placed on Putin losing power by year-end — A $400,000 wager on a prediction market forecasts Putin’s removal from power by December, echoing a prior controversial bet. The move highlights growing speculation about instability in the Kremlin.
Signs of Russian public dissent against Putin emerge — Reports identify subtle but increasing signals of domestic discontent, including protests and social media dissent. These trends may reflect eroding support for the war and Putin’s leadership.
Ukraine’s 48-hour blitz paralyzes Crimea operations — A concentrated Ukrainian offensive disrupted Russian military activity in Crimea, demonstrating Kyiv’s ability to degrade critical supply lines. The attack underscores Ukraine’s growing tactical sophistication.
— @JuliaDavisNews Jul 4, 2026
U.S. officials privately warned Iran this spring that Israel could try to assassinate senior Iranian officials involved in nuclear negotiations, according to a New York Post report citing two U.S. officials.
The report said Washington was concerned that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi could be targeted, and that the warning was passed to Tehran through intermediaries.
Israel has denied similar claims reported by other media, with the Prime Minister’s Office calling them “fake news” and “a complete fabrication of reality”.
— @Anewz_tv Jul 4, 2026
#Poland is set to reassess the scale of its assistance to #Ukraine
Poland is reassessing its scale of assistance to Ukraine by refraining from making new financial commitments at international summits. Prime Minister #DonaldTusk has instructed the Polish delegation at the NATO summit in Ankara to exercise caution regarding fresh aid declarations, citing Warsaw’s massive responsibilities in defending the European Union’s eastern frontier. [1, 2]
Key Drivers of the ShiftEastern Flank Security: Poland currently carries the primary burden of securing the alliance’s eastern border. Warsaw has emphasized that while they will not withdraw support, allies must recognize and consider Poland’s domestic security and defense expenditures.
Winding Down Refugee Programs: Poland has phased out free emergency accommodation at collective centers (OZZ) for the majority of Ukrainian citizens, pivoting to policies that link benefits with employment and schooling.
Historical Disputes: The reassessment coincides with escalating diplomatic tensions regarding World War II history. The friction deepened after Polish authorities stripped Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of the Order of the White Eagle, largely in response to Kyiv naming a military unit after WWII-era nationalist formations.
Bilateral Reset Efforts: Following the diplomatic fallout, Ukraine has proposed an “anti-crisis package” to repair relations with Warsaw. While Polish officials are evaluating these efforts, they have demanded concrete gestures of goodwill and historical corrections from Kyiv. [7, 9]For further updates on cross-border diplomacy and regional aid policies, you can monitor ongoing coverage by Notes from Poland or view the latest geopolitical developments tracked by POLITICO. [9, 10]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] tvpworld.com/94158528/tusk-s…
[2] english.nv.ua/nation/poland-…
[3] caliber.az/en/post/tusk-sign…
[4] yahoo.com/news/politics/arti…
[5] visitukraine.today/blog/8874…
[6] sud.ua/en/news/abroad/365424…
[7] politico.eu/article/donald-t…
[8] unn.ua/en/news/tusk-stated-t…
[9] notesfrompoland.com/2026/07/…
[10] odessa-journal.com/poland-wi…
– Google Search google.com/search?q=Poland+i…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jul 4, 2026
Nothing and that’s what he’s planningJay Bookman (@jaysbookman)Let’s say Trump just decided to add himself to Mount Rushmore, and crews showed up at the site tomorrow with chisels, air hammers and scaffolding and began hammering away.
What’s to stop him? Given what we’re seeing with the White House, what’s to stop him?— https://x.com/jaysbookman/status/2073369784377393345— @KremlinTrolls Jul 4, 2026
KREMLIN Vows to Continue Special Military Operations in Ukraine with no Plans to Halt SVO.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia has no plans to stop its “Special Military Operation” (SVO) in Ukraine.
Fighting will continue until Moscow achieves its goals, including Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of Russian-controlled territories.
Peskov said peace is possible quickly if Ukraine meets Russia’s demands, but otherwise military operations proceed.
— @Globalsurv Jul 4, 2026
Beachgoers on Long Island enjoying Fourth of July despite shark bite – YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=bZmNEqlc…
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jul 4, 2026