MORE: The number of Russian federal subjects experiencing gasoline shortages and sales restrictions has been steadily increasing since mid-June, with shortages in occupied Crimea beginning as early as late May 2026.
Occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts have also experienced gasoline shortages and had to implement sales restrictions. The decreasing gasoline supply in Russia and occupied Ukraine has led to high demand and rising prices, with long lines forming at gas stations. Russian regional governments and gas station companies have imposed gasoline and diesel sales restrictions since the beginning of June in an effort to curb the rising consumer demand.
Approximately 78 out of Russia’s 83 federal subjects have experienced fuel shortages, with Russian authorities in 48 Russian federal subjects imposing official gasoline and diesel purchasing limits. ISW has not yet observed evidence of fuel restrictions in the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Kalmykia, the Chechen Republic, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug, but Russian gasoline shortages will likely spread to those regions in the near future.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)Key Takeaway: Ukraine’s long- and intermediate-range strike campaigns against Russian energy and logistics infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine are causing significant effects on the Russian economy and impacting Russia’s ability to sustain its frontline military efforts in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have recently intensified these coordinated strike campaigns, causing severe gasoline shortages across Russia and occupied Ukraine. Ukraine’s strike campaigns are causing Russia to lose petrochemical export revenue that could have gone toward its war effort and are starting to impact Russia’s frontline logistics.
The Kremlin is implementing an array of temporary mitigations to try to ensure sufficient gasoline flows to the domestic market and to address problems facing consumers while downplaying the severity of the wide-scale gasoline shortages and projecting a facade of stability.
The Kremlin will likely fail to address the direct cause of the gasoline shortages — Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure —because the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and military are likely unable to rapidly strengthen Russia’s air defense umbrella to cover the frontline and its vast rear simultaneously.
Ukrainian forces will likely be able to continue — if not escalate — their long-range strike campaign until Russia is able to find a solution to its air defense insufficiencies. Ukraine’s strike campaigns against Russian petrochemical infrastructure and logistics will likely continue to degrade Russia’s struggling wartime economy and have growing consequences on Russia’s frontline operations in the future.
The Kremlin has repeatedly underestimated Ukraine and failed to prepare its defenses against attacks in past years, and such miscalculations are vulnerabilities that Ukraine has exploited and can continue to exploit.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2074170011070128633
— @TheStudyofWar Jul 6, 2026
