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x.com/mikenov/status/2073440…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov)OSINT Uncovers Shifting Warfare, Maritime Tensions, and Hybrid Threats rss.app/brief/posts/3265380a…
AI Brief
Open-source intelligence reveals escalating maritime hybrid tactics, including Iran’s de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s propaganda-driven territorial claims in Ukraine. Emerging OSINT tools and AI integration signal a rapid evolution in intelligence gathering, while drone warfare dynamics in Ukraine show tactical adaptations and supply constraints.
Key StoriesIran asserts maritime dominance in Strait of Hormuz amid shipping rerouting — OSINT tracking shows nearly all commercial vessels abandoned the U.S.-backed southern corridor in favor of Iran’s northern route, with multiple ships reversing course or switching lanes. Reports indicate the IRGC has effectively closed the Omani waters corridor, signaling a strategic shift in regional control.
Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine exposed as inflated by 1,900 sq km — OSINT analysts cross-referenced Russian military maps presented to Putin with DeepState data, revealing a 1,900 sq km discrepancy in claimed advances. The pattern suggests deliberate misinformation to bolster domestic propaganda and morale among Russian generals.Ukraine drone strikes disrupt Crimea operations, targeting airbases and infrastructure — Overnight drone attacks forced the temporary closure of the Kerch Bridge and struck Belbek airbase, destroying a Russian MiG-29. OSINT monitoring confirms fires at multiple strategic sites, indicating Ukraine’s growing ability to project force into occupied territories.
Shahed drone attacks on Ukraine decline in frequency and scale — OSINT researchers note a reduction in Shahed kamikaze drone launches and longer intervals between large-scale attacks. The shift may indicate supply chain disruptions, tactical reallocation, or improved Ukrainian interception capabilities.
AI and automation accelerate OSINT tool development for security and intelligence — New open-source tools integrate AI to automate OSINT workflows, including 18-tool frameworks and real-time conflict dashboards. These advancements suggest a democratization of intelligence capabilities but raise concerns about misinformation and operational security risks.
-— https://x.com/mikenov/status/2073440200454512823— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jul 4, 2026
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