RT by @mikenov: RT by @mikenov: As Ukraine prepares for the coming winter, Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi and the Ministry of Defense face a brutal reality: Russia is planning a two-front winter escalation, and the window to act is closing fast. While last winter was one of the hardest of the war, the upcoming season could be significantly worse if Ukraine and its allies fail to anticipate Moscow’s next moves. Although the Russian military is stalled across much of the front and its economy is under severe strain, Putin remains committed to total victory. Desperation will drive escalation. Moscow is assembling a realistic worst-case scenario that combines severe infrastructure strikes

As Ukraine prepares for the coming winter, Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi and the Ministry of Defense face a brutal reality: Russia is planning a two-front winter escalation, and the window to act is closing fast.

While last winter was one of the hardest of the war, the upcoming season could be significantly worse if Ukraine and its allies fail to anticipate Moscow’s next moves.

Although the Russian military is stalled across much of the front and its economy is under severe strain, Putin remains committed to total victory. Desperation will drive escalation. Moscow is assembling a realistic worst-case scenario that combines severe infrastructure strikes with new ground offensives designed to stretch Ukrainian forces to their breaking point.

First, Russia is aggressively stockpiling ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and strike drones. This winter, Moscow will possess more long-range firepower than last year, while Ukraine faces a critical shortage of air defense interceptors. If Russia successfully disables heating, electricity, and water networks during sub-zero temperatures, the humanitarian toll will be catastrophic. Western allies must immediately scale PAC interceptor procurements, expand European production lines, buy global second-hand interceptors, and fund Ukraine’s domestic air defense development and manufacturing. Ukraine also urgently needs more generators and spare parts to ensure rapid energy repairs.

Second, Putin needs to break the front stalemate. Russia is likely preparing for another mobilization wave following September elections (or later), alongside efforts to secure more North Korean troops and pressure Belarus into greater involvement. Opening a new northern front toward Kyiv or northwestern Ukraine would force Kyiv to divert elite units from the east and south, opening fatal gaps in defense.

To withstand this double pressure, Ukraine will need to increase its monthly mobilization rates, while allies must provide the funding required to equip these new units.

Time is running out, and both Ukraine and its international partners must prepare for this worst-case scenario today

— @joni_askola Jul 26, 2026