Category: Tweets – Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

Kazakhstan refused to save Russia from the fuel crisis.

According to unofficial data, Kazakh oil workers refused to supply gasoline to the Russian Federation to ease the acute shortage that arose after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

Reuters previously reported that Moscow requested about 50 thousand tons of AI-92 gasoline from Astana. Officially, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister stated that no request from Russia had been received.

Against the backdrop of the shortage in border regions, “gray” exports of gasoline from Kazakhstan through private channels have begun. The authorities of the republic stated that they are actively fighting such “supplies”.

— @visegrad24 Jun 29, 2026

Lukashenko in China: analysis – Google Search  google.com/search?num=10&new…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 29, 2026

Russia vows political, military-technical response after Finland lifts nuclear weapons deployment ban  aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/russia-…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 29, 2026

Vladimir Putin’s latest address to the United Russia party exposed a massive historical paradox: the dictator is leaking more truth between the lines than he actually realizes… 🪆📉 When he rants about the West “testing Russia on a serious level” and admits to a “difficult period,” he is fundamentally describing a regime that has lost all strategic initiative and is stuck in a reactive panic.

The ground reality can no longer be masked by state TV propaganda:

Infrastructure Collapse: Ukraine’s precise drone quarantine is leaving mega-refineries (like Slavyansk-na-Kubani) in ashes, compounding a catastrophic domestic fuel crisis with dried-up pumps and endless lines.

Military Defeats: Elite air defense systems (S-300/S-400) are being obliterated in the Kerch region, a third of the country’s commercial flight fleets are grounded due to sanctions, and insider leaks reveal emergency evacuation blueprints for Crimea.

Political Fractures: Putin is actively purging volatile warmongers like Dmitry Medvedev from electoral lists, recognizing that the Russian public is utterly exhausted by war and surging inflation.

The most telling sign from Putin’s rhetoric is the sudden, defensive shift. The grand, arrogant promises of conquering new lands and reshaping the Western security order have quietly vanished. Instead, the focus is now entirely on surviving and protecting their own borders. When a tyrant stops bragging about expansion and starts pleading for survival, it tells you everything about the true state of the empire.

— @jalle51 Jun 29, 2026

#GUR  #Mossad  #DIA
Gemini Report
share.gemini.google/n0c7aRtm…
What is the relative role and the share of Ukraine – Mossad cooperation in the Ukraine’s recent military situation? – GS
Ukraine-Mossad: Iran Nexus Intelligence
The Relative Role and Share of Ukraine-Mossad Cooperation
The intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Israeli intelligence services (primarily Mossad and Aman) occupies a narrow, highly specialized, but strategically vital share of Ukraine’s overall military and intelligence architecture.

Compared to the massive, real-time tactical and strategic intelligence pipeline provided by the United States and NATO partners, the sheer volume of Israeli intelligence sharing is relatively small. However, its qualitative value is exceptionally high because it is entirely focused on a single, critical vector: the Russia-Iran military nexus.

The Core Focus: The Iranian Nexus

The cooperation is built on a foundation of mutual necessity rather than a broad, unconditional alliance. It functions as a two-way intelligence exchange heavily centered on the Iranian Shahed (Geran-2) drone series and broader Iranian military technology transfers.

What Israel Provides: Mossad and Israeli military intelligence supply Ukraine with highly granular data on Iranian supply chains, manufacturing nodes, electronic components, and early warnings regarding the shipment of drone technologies and munitions from Tehran to Moscow.

What Ukraine Provides: In return, Ukraine functions as a real-world forensic laboratory. Ukrainian intelligence shares battlefield debris analysis, electronic warfare (EW) signatures, and the tactical evasion behaviors of Iranian drones with Israel. This allows Israeli intelligence to study exactly how Iranian weapons perform against modern, layered air defense systems—data that is directly applicable to Israel’s own security environment.
Recent Shifts in the Dynamic (2025–2026)

The relationship has evolved significantly over the past year due to the escalating, multi-front conflict involving Iran in the Middle East. The dynamic has shifted from Israel quietly passing intelligence to Ukraine, to a more reciprocal relationship where Ukrainian expertise is highly valued.

Export of Ukrainian Expertise: As Iranian drone warfare has expanded to target infrastructure and shipping across the Middle East, Ukraine has transitioned into a primary exporter of counter-drone knowledge. Ukrainian military specialists are currently deployed in several Gulf states to help build defense systems against the exact same Iranian drones used by Russia. While this primarily involves Arab states, it indirectly serves Israel’s broader regional containment strategy against Iran.

Quiet Hardware Integration: While Israel has historically refused to supply direct lethal aid to avoid provoking Russia, cooperation has materialized in defensive spheres. An Israeli-designed, highly customized early warning civilian alert system became fully operational in Kyiv in mid-2025. Furthermore, there have been quiet, indirect transfers of critical hardware, such as the U.S.-brokered relocation of Israeli Patriot air defense batteries to Ukraine in late 2025.
Why the “Share” Remains Compartmentalized

Despite the high value of this specific intelligence corridor, Ukraine-Israel intelligence sharing remains compartmentalized and limited in its overall scope due to two primary factors:

Israel’s Strategic Ambiguity: Israel maintains a complex balancing act. It requires freedom of operation in Syrian airspace—which is monitored by Russian air defenses—to strike Iranian proxy targets. As a result, Israel largely avoids broad, overt intelligence sharing regarding Russian troop movements, domestic Russian affairs, or purely Russian weapons systems, restricting the flow strictly to Iranian-linked activities.

NATO Dominance: The architecture of Ukraine’s military operations relies on the C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) infrastructure of NATO. Israel plugs into this network for specific, Iran-related threats (often passing intelligence through NATO intermediaries in Brussels) rather than acting as a primary, foundational intelligence partner.
Ultimately, Ukraine-Mossad cooperation does not dictate the daily tactical realities of the infantry fight against Russian forces. Instead, it is a highly surgical, transactional partnership focused entirely on neutralizing the aerospace threat posed by the convergence of Russian and Iranian military interests.
–
x.com/mikenov/status/2071577…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Ukraine –  #Mossad cooperation – Google Search  google.com/search?num=10&new…
#Intelligence and Covert Operations: Mossad has increased its personnel and established a stronger presence in Kyiv, exchanging strategic, first-hand intelligence regarding Kremlin movements and potential covert operations. In return, Ukrainian intelligence units have offered support for joint Israeli and American operational efforts aimed at neutralizing Iranian defense networks.
AI Mode:
Intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Israel’s Mossad has transformed into a highly active partnership focused on countering the unified Russian-Iranian military threat. While Israel historically restricted its engagement to avoid provoking Russia, the shared crisis of Iranian-engineered drone and missile technology has forced an unprecedented level of operational alignment.—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2071577182057496992

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 29, 2026

Gemini Report
share.gemini.google/n0c7aRtm…
What is the relative role and the share of Ukraine – Mossad cooperation in the Ukraine’s recent military situation? – GS
Ukraine-Mossad: Iran Nexus Intelligence
The Relative Role and Share of Ukraine-Mossad Cooperation
The intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Israeli intelligence services (primarily Mossad and Aman) occupies a narrow, highly specialized, but strategically vital share of Ukraine’s overall military and intelligence architecture.

Compared to the massive, real-time tactical and strategic intelligence pipeline provided by the United States and NATO partners, the sheer volume of Israeli intelligence sharing is relatively small. However, its qualitative value is exceptionally high because it is entirely focused on a single, critical vector: the Russia-Iran military nexus.

The Core Focus: The Iranian Nexus

The cooperation is built on a foundation of mutual necessity rather than a broad, unconditional alliance. It functions as a two-way intelligence exchange heavily centered on the Iranian Shahed (Geran-2) drone series and broader Iranian military technology transfers.

What Israel Provides: Mossad and Israeli military intelligence supply Ukraine with highly granular data on Iranian supply chains, manufacturing nodes, electronic components, and early warnings regarding the shipment of drone technologies and munitions from Tehran to Moscow.

What Ukraine Provides: In return, Ukraine functions as a real-world forensic laboratory. Ukrainian intelligence shares battlefield debris analysis, electronic warfare (EW) signatures, and the tactical evasion behaviors of Iranian drones with Israel. This allows Israeli intelligence to study exactly how Iranian weapons perform against modern, layered air defense systems—data that is directly applicable to Israel’s own security environment.
Recent Shifts in the Dynamic (2025–2026)

The relationship has evolved significantly over the past year due to the escalating, multi-front conflict involving Iran in the Middle East. The dynamic has shifted from Israel quietly passing intelligence to Ukraine, to a more reciprocal relationship where Ukrainian expertise is highly valued.

Export of Ukrainian Expertise: As Iranian drone warfare has expanded to target infrastructure and shipping across the Middle East, Ukraine has transitioned into a primary exporter of counter-drone knowledge. Ukrainian military specialists are currently deployed in several Gulf states to help build defense systems against the exact same Iranian drones used by Russia. While this primarily involves Arab states, it indirectly serves Israel’s broader regional containment strategy against Iran.

Quiet Hardware Integration: While Israel has historically refused to supply direct lethal aid to avoid provoking Russia, cooperation has materialized in defensive spheres. An Israeli-designed, highly customized early warning civilian alert system became fully operational in Kyiv in mid-2025. Furthermore, there have been quiet, indirect transfers of critical hardware, such as the U.S.-brokered relocation of Israeli Patriot air defense batteries to Ukraine in late 2025.
Why the “Share” Remains Compartmentalized

Despite the high value of this specific intelligence corridor, Ukraine-Israel intelligence sharing remains compartmentalized and limited in its overall scope due to two primary factors:

Israel’s Strategic Ambiguity: Israel maintains a complex balancing act. It requires freedom of operation in Syrian airspace—which is monitored by Russian air defenses—to strike Iranian proxy targets. As a result, Israel largely avoids broad, overt intelligence sharing regarding Russian troop movements, domestic Russian affairs, or purely Russian weapons systems, restricting the flow strictly to Iranian-linked activities.

NATO Dominance: The architecture of Ukraine’s military operations relies on the C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) infrastructure of NATO. Israel plugs into this network for specific, Iran-related threats (often passing intelligence through NATO intermediaries in Brussels) rather than acting as a primary, foundational intelligence partner.
Ultimately, Ukraine-Mossad cooperation does not dictate the daily tactical realities of the infantry fight against Russian forces. Instead, it is a highly surgical, transactional partnership focused entirely on neutralizing the aerospace threat posed by the convergence of Russian and Iranian military interests.
–
x.com/mikenov/status/2071577…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Ukraine –  #Mossad cooperation – Google Search  google.com/search?num=10&new…
#Intelligence and Covert Operations: Mossad has increased its personnel and established a stronger presence in Kyiv, exchanging strategic, first-hand intelligence regarding Kremlin movements and potential covert operations. In return, Ukrainian intelligence units have offered support for joint Israeli and American operational efforts aimed at neutralizing Iranian defense networks.
AI Mode:
Intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Israel’s Mossad has transformed into a highly active partnership focused on countering the unified Russian-Iranian military threat. While Israel historically restricted its engagement to avoid provoking Russia, the shared crisis of Iranian-engineered drone and missile technology has forced an unprecedented level of operational alignment.—  https://x.com/mikenov/status/2071577182057496992

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jun 29, 2026