RT by @mikenov: RT by @mikenov: The Next “Confrontation” Show Between Putin and Ilham Aliyev? What is the ideal way to evade sanctions, give money to Putin, and sell his oil and gas? What is the West hoping for here? Or are they interested in this performance as well? The political stage in the South Caucasus has once again become the focus of attention. The growing harsh rhetoric between Moscow and Baku, and the different messages being sent by the two sides, have created a new political agenda. At first glance, this picture may give the impression of a serious confrontation. However, the political experience of the region in recent years requires a more sober approach. Let us clarify this

The Next “Confrontation” Show Between Putin and Ilham Aliyev?

What is the ideal way to evade sanctions, give money to Putin, and sell his oil and gas?

What is the West hoping for here? Or are they interested in this performance as well?

The political stage in the South Caucasus has once again become the focus of attention. The growing harsh rhetoric between Moscow and Baku, and the different messages being sent by the two sides, have created a new political agenda. At first glance, this picture may give the impression of a serious confrontation. However, the political experience of the region in recent years requires a more sober approach.

Let us clarify this bit by bit.

The relationship between Putin and Ilham Aliyev has long been too complicated to be measured solely by public statements. Russia is an actor that has to take Azerbaijan’s interests in the region into account, while Azerbaijan is likewise an actor that has to take Russia’s regional interests into account. The “allied cooperation agreement” between them, signed just 20 hours before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is still in force. In fact, in the text of the phone conversation between Ilham Aliyev and Putin just last month, they also stated that they were taking practical steps to further deepen this alliance. In Azerbaijan, 355 Russian educational institutions are still operating in full swing. Ilham Aliyev still speaks Russian at home, his son-in-law gives statements in Russian, and his grandchildren greet customers in Russian every day at the businesses they have opened.

Russia, meanwhile, has thousands of files on Heydar Aliyev filled with layer upon layer of compromising material, while Ilham Aliyev’s “national archive,” including footage allegedly recorded in casinos and other places in Moscow, lies just a few kilometers from the Kremlin’s blood-stained walls.

For this reason, whether there are genuine political disagreements behind the harsh statements, or whether this is part of a broader diplomatic calculation, is a separate question.

For the West today, the main issue should not simply be what words are being exchanged between Moscow and Baku, but what steps will follow those words. Because there can sometimes be a huge distance between political rhetoric and actual policy. Yet when you approach the issue with the assumption that “the West does not know what we know,” you see that, for some reason, the pieces of the puzzle do not quite fit. What appears to be happening is that the “confrontations” between Russia and Azerbaijan, at least at this stage, coincide with the interests of the West as well.

If the two sides are genuinely standing against each other, concrete consequences should become visible: real changes in political, economic and diplomatic relations, new decisions and practical steps. Otherwise, the intention behind harsh statements may simply be to send political messages aimed at domestic and foreign audiences, potentially misleading those who enter politics by accident.

As we try to bring together scientific, political, diplomatic, international, analytical and logical data and process the information, a picture begins to emerge:

Has a genuinely new stage begun in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, or is Baku presenting the West with an image of an “independent Azerbaijan confronting Moscow”?

The answer should be sought not in emotional statements, but in concrete political steps.

Because in international politics, the steps taken behind the cameras matter just as much as the handshakes seen in front of them.

In the South Caucasus, the consequences of this behind-the-scenes politics directly affect not only the security interests of the countries of the region, but also those of Europe and the West as a whole.

@NobelPrize  @washingtonpost
@nytimes  @ukinazerbaijan  @USEmbassyBaku  @francediplo
@FranceBakou   @francediplo_EN

— @MemmedliQulu85 Aug 18, 2026