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The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry or by any of the three countries that are parties to the agreement.
Follow us on GoogleTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pose after signing a joint defence agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026.(photo credit: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)ByELI LEONUpdated:
Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, the new security alliance established by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan earlier this month, Al Mayadeen reported on Saturday, citing a senior Iranian official.
The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry or by any of the three countries that are parties to the agreement.
Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Iranian parliament’s Khaneh Mellat news agency, told the channel that “Iran has received an invitation to join the Mecca Agreement, and the matter is under review.”
Rahimi added that countries in the region “are moving toward seeking a regional security umbrella,” and claimed that this represented “a victory for Iran, because it has been calling for this for a long time.”
The Mecca Agreement was signed on August 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ahead of the expected signing of a defence deal between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. (credit: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)
The agreement establishes a principle of mutual defense under which an attack on any one of the three countries would be considered an attack on all of them. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan compared the mechanism to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, but stressed that the agreement was not directed against Iran or any specific country.
The member states have already begun developing mechanisms for diplomatic and military coordination, including meetings among foreign and defense ministers and military commanders, joint exercises, and cooperation between their defense industries.
Alliance could expand to include more countries
Turkey has said the alliance could expand to include additional countries. Egypt has been publicly mentioned as a possible candidate for membership.
Iran has so far responded to the agreement with cautious approval. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on August 10 that Tehran had “no reason for concern” over the establishment of the alliance.
According to Baghaei, the move reflects growing recognition among countries in the region of the need to build regional security mechanisms.
If the claim that Iran was invited is officially confirmed, Iranian membership would significantly alter the character of the alliance, which was established by three countries with close security ties to the West, and would turn it into a substantially broader regional framework.
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The “Lethal Math” Forcing the Shift
Three Pillars of the New Strategy
1. Active Defense: “Hunting the Launchers”
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The Tactic: Utilizing deep-strike capabilities and expanded intelligence sharing, Ukrainian forces are actively hunting Russian mobile erector-launchers (like the Iskander systems) positioned in border regions such as Bryansk and Kursk.
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Recent Success: On August 22, 2026, President Zelenskyy confirmed a successful strike on an Iskander launcher, validating this “active defense” doctrine aimed at disrupting large-scale Russian salvos before they are fired.
2. Project FREYJA: A Sovereign European Shield
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The Coalition: The initiative includes 10 European nations (including the UK, France, Germany, and Sweden), with Ukraine acting as the system integrator.
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The Goal: The coalition aims to bypass operational bottlenecks—such as microelectronic supply chain issues—to build a pan-European, multilayered anti-ballistic missile architecture. A working prototype of the FREYJA interceptor shield is targeted for the first half of 2027.
3. Domestic Production & Bridging the Gap
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Domestic Ballistics: Ukraine has accelerated its native defense-tech sector (working with clusters like Brave1), aiming to roll out its own domestic anti-ballistic systems and ballistic capabilities by 2026–2027.
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European Procurement: To cover the immediate shortfall, Ukraine recently secured an agreement with Germany for 600 PAC-2 missiles to be delivered across 2027–2028, and expects new radar systems and a SAMP/T battery from France this fall.
Assessments and Predictions for 2026–2027
The “Archer vs. Arrow” Strategy
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Interceptor Shortages: Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of Western-supplied anti-ballistic missile systems, making it difficult to maintain a purely defensive posture against incoming strikes.
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Record Attacks: Russia launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles (including S-400s, Zircons, and Oniks) at Ukraine in July 2026 alone—the highest monthly total since the full-scale invasion began.
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Targeting Mobile Launchers: Russia relies on an estimated 100 to 150 mobile launch units for these strikes. By systematically hunting down these specific vehicles, Ukraine aims to permanently degrade Russia’s capacity to launch mass barrages.
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Deep Strike Capabilities: To execute this, Ukraine is utilizing complex strike operations, which include the use of advanced kamikaze drones capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory or near the border. There are also ongoing discussions about equipping long-range drones with Starlink for better navigation and control during these specific hunt-and-destroy missions.
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“Today we have another success. We cannot provide many details because of the sensitivity of the operation, but the fact remains. We struck an Iskander launcher near our borders. I am grateful to our soldiers carrying this out. This is our operation to hunt down their systems deployed nearby,” Zelenskyy said.
According to him, the operation is one way to respond when Ukraine has limited access to anti-ballistic missiles.
“There is another tactic, and it is more difficult. We developed it ourselves — hunting down their nearby launch sites from which ballistic missiles are fired. This is a separate effort, a separate program, a separate operation. And today we managed to do it. Our Defense Forces did an outstanding job,” the president added.
Russian forces have recently stepped up their use of ballistic missiles against Ukraine, particularly Kyiv. On the night of August 20, Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region involving dozens of ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles and attack drones.
According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, 15 people were killed in the attack, while dozens more were injured. The Solomianskyi district suffered the highest number of casualties. A high-rise building, a school and a children’s hospital were also damaged there.
Ukraine is also working on its own anti-ballistic missile program. Earlier, Ukrainian defense company Fire Point announced when it expects the first ballistic missile interception under its Freyja project and provided an update on the development.
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Ukraine has launched a new operation targeting Russian ballistic missile launchers near its borders, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Aug. 22, as Kyiv faces a shortage of missiles capable of intercepting ballistic weapons.
Zelensky said that Ukrainian military struck an Iskander ballistic missile launcher near Ukraine’s borders on Aug. 22, without providing further details.
The strike was part of a separate operation to hunt down Russian missile systems positioned near Ukraine, which Zelensky described as an alternative tactic amid the dire lack of of anti-ballistic missile interceptors.
The Iskander is Russia’s main surface to surface tactical ballistic missile system, with a stated range of around 500 kilometers.
Complemented with North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles and advanced Zircon cruise missiles, the Iskander has been the workhorse of combined mass attacks again Ukrainian targets in recent months.
When attacking Kyiv and other targets inside Ukraine, Iskanders are launched from mobile erector-launcher systems inside Russian territory, usually in border regions like Bryansk or Kursk oblasts.
With Ukraine’s stocks of Patriot ballistic missile interceptor at or near empty, strikes against Iskander launchers have long been proposed as an alternative method of fighting the Iskander threat, but Ukraine has lacked options for quickly detecting and hitting launch sites.
“At one point (the Russians) were planning to launch an attack, but didn’t go through with it. This is no coincidence,” Zelensky told journalists.
“In other words, we’re working to prevent them from carrying out large-scale missile attacks. These are individual, complex operations, and we’re now starting to see the first results.”
Zelensky said Russia could potentially produce up to 1,300 ballistic missiles annually and currently has around 600–630 in stock. Moscow could eventually aim to produce around 100 ballistic missiles per month, he said, although it has not yet reached that rate.
Ukraine is also seeking more Patriot interceptors ahead of winter, Zelensky said, revealing that Ukraine had only received 264 missiles for the advanced surface-to-air system this year so far.
The Air Force has requested 360 missiles, up from an initial target of 300. According to the president, Kyiv hopes to secure 5–10% of U.S. stocks, with Ukraine prepared to pay for the missiles.
Zelensky also said Germany had agreed to provide 600 PAC-2 missiles for Patriot systems in 2027–2028, while negotiations with Washington over additional supplies continue.
Longer-term alternatives to the Patriot are also moving ahead, the president said, referring specifically to the Freyja project, a joint effort by European and Ukrainian defense companies to produce a new anti-ballistic missile system.
The project has moved from political discussions to the technical stage, with companies now beginning practical work, Zelensky said.
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Keith Kellogg, the former U.S. envoy to Ukraine, met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Aug. 22 to discuss Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense missiles, as Russia continues to intensify its attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Kellogg, previously regarded as one of the most pro-Ukrainian voices in the White House, left his position in 2025 but said his work in support of Ukraine would continue after leaving his government role.
Zelensky said on social media that he discussed with Kellogg Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot air defense missiles, which the Presidential Office described as an “absolute priority” for Ukraine’s defense needs. Zelensky reiterated to Kellogg the country’s willingness to purchase the interceptor missiles ahead of what is expected to be yet another gruelling winter.
Russia has been exploiting Ukraine’s shortage of protection against ballistic missiles, hammering cities with intense, frequent bombardments. Recent attacks over the last few days killed 16 people at a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih on Aug. 21 and 15 people in Kyiv on Aug. 20.
Kellogg’s visit to Kyiv comes a day after the former official visited Odesa on Aug. 21 as part of a working group analysis Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure.
The U.S. delegation led by Kellogg was shown the damage from Russian attacks on port infrastructure and briefed on measures being taken to maintain operations, the Infrastructure Ministry said.
Amid Zelensky’s calls for more Patriot interceptor missiles from allies, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Aug. 22 that France will speed up the delivery of missiles and other military equipment following a nearly two-hour-long phone call between the two leaders.
Macron also agreed to help Kyiv in its communications with international partners that possess Patriot air defense systems, according to Zelensky. The president has repeatedly said that Patriots are critical for protecting Ukrainian civilians.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses delegates from the United Russia party as he attends the party’s congress ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moscow, Russia, August 22, 2026. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Russia needs new forces for war effort, Ukrainian leader says
- Says Moscow also stepping up ballistic missile attacks
- Kyiv’s $27 billion defence gap another major challenge
KYIV, Aug 23 (Reuters) – Ukraine thinks Russia is planning to draft an additional 300,000 troops for its war effort after Russian parliamentary elections in mid-September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
Moscow’s forces are pressing ahead with an effort to capture the rest of eastern Ukraine’s industrialised Donbas region, where its troops have ground forward at what Kyiv says is a great cost.
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In comments to reporters released on Sunday, Zelenskiy said Russia could draft more troops in 2027 to reach an overall goal of 500,000, part of what he described as a “peripheral mobilisation” targeting Russia’s far-flung regions.
“We believe it will not take place in the central cities,” he said. “But I don’t think they will be able to hide it very well.”
Parliamentary elections in Russia are set for September 18 to 20.
As fighting rages around the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, Zelenskiy said Russia was losing a “maximum” amount of troops in its bid to advance into Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt of eastern cities.
He also hailed recent gains by Kyiv’s troops in southeastern Ukraine, adding that the amount of territory occupied by Russia and liberated by Ukrainian forces in 2026 would be equal.
RUSSIA RAMPING UP MISSILE OUTPUT, ZELENSKIY SAYS
Russia is bolstering its battlefield offensive with an escalating air war on Ukrainian cities made worse by a critical shortage of U.S.-designed Patriot interceptors.
Zelenskiy said the 264 interceptors Ukraine is expecting to have received in 2026 represent a significant drop from 2025, when Ukraine received 364, and 2023, when it received 675.
He added that Russia was aiming to develop a capacity to produce up to 1,300 ballistic missiles per year.
Over the summer, Ukraine has escalated a campaign of drone strikes targeting Russian economic infrastructure, including oil refineries and online retailers’ warehouses, seeking to destroy infrastructure it says is central to Russia’s war effort.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in comments on Saturday that Kyiv had opened “Pandora’s box” by striking economic targets, saying Russia would hit back at Ukraine’s “most sensitive economic sectors”.
UKRAINE BRACES FOR NEW ENERGY STRIKES, FACES FUNDING GAP
Zelenskiy said Ukraine was facing another difficult winter of Russian strikes on its energy grid, a prospect that had prompted Kyiv’s air force to ask for 360 missile interceptors for the season.
He also said he had reached an agreement with France on at least one SAMP/T air-defence system this year, and with Germany on the supply of about 600 PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors through 2028.
Ukraine’s war effort is further complicated by a $27 billion defence funding gap this year, Zelenskiy said, a result of higher-than-expected spending in the first half of the year.
At least $8 billion is needed for “a normal start” to 2027, plus about $20 billion more for military salaries, payments to families of the dead, as well as other financing, he added.
Writing by Dan Peleschuk;
Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Helen Popper
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Russia and Ukraine have exchanged heavy air attacks, killing at least 17 people, as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of intensified retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian economic infrastructure.
Russian attacks on Ukraine on Saturday killed at least seven people, while Ukrainian strikes on Russia and Moscow-occupied territory killed at least 10, according to officials.
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Ukraine’s strikes included hits on a warehouse operated by online retailer Ozon and an industrial site in Samara region, officials said.
The deadly attacks came as Russia and Ukraine both ramp up drone campaigns aiming to cripple each other’s economic infrastructure, often striking targets far beyond the war’s front lines, as fighting on the battlefield grinds towards the four and a half year mark.
The exchange on Saturday also followed a Russian drone attack on a shopping centre in Kryvyi Rih that killed 16 people and wounded about 130 on Friday, according to a local official.
Strikes on Russia
In a post on Telegram on Saturday, the governor of Russia’s Samara region, Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, said that an elderly woman had been killed in a strike on the city of Novokuibyshevsk, which he said caused damage to industrial facilities.
Ukraine’s military said it had struck the city’s oil refinery, causing a fire.
Ozon, Russia’s second-largest online retailer, said in a statement on Telegram that work at its Samara region logistics centre in the town of Chapayevsk had been halted after the strike, which it said caused injuries.
The attack is the first on Ozon following weeks of drone strikes on its larger rival Wildberries, which Ukraine has cast as part of a wider campaign against economic infrastructure underpinning the Russian war in Ukraine.
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Elsewhere, regional officials reported casualties across several Russian border and occupied territories. Three people, including two children, were killed in Krasnodar region, while two were killed and 13 wounded in Belgorod.
In Russian-annexed Sevastopol in Crimea, at least two people died, and 10 were injured after a Ukrainian drone struck a bus, according to the Moscow-installed governor.
In Russian-controlled Luhansk, two civilians, including a 16-year-old boy, were reported killed.
Putin, speaking to state broadcaster Vesti TV, said Ukraine’s strikes on Russian economic targets amounted to opening a “Pandora’s box”.
“The Kyiv regime set out to damage our economy,” he said. “What did it do? It opened this Pandora’s box itself.”
“Retaliation will not be long in coming,” he said. “Russia’s actions are far more painful and far more destructive. I have said many times that there will always be a response.”
Strikes on Ukraine
In Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, at least one person was killed and another wounded when Russian ballistic missiles hit railway infrastructure in the city overnight, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Another attack on the Kyiv region on Saturday afternoon killed two others, officials said. One person was killed overnight in the Zaporizhia region, while a daytime attack killed three others and wounded 15, according to local officials.
Rescuers in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown, meanwhile searched the charred wreckage of the Sunny Gallery shopping complex following Friday’s deadly assault.
Oleksandr Hanzha, the governor of Dnipropetrovsk, confirmed in an update on Saturday morning that the death toll in Kryvyi Rih had risen to 16, with more than 130 wounded, including 22 children.
Al Jazeera’s Audrey MacAlpine, reporting from Kyiv, said Friday’s attack began “at 4:30 in the afternoon when the mall is typically crowded”, with a second wave following “just 30 minutes later, with rescue workers from nearby regions called in to help”.
“The attacks come as civilian casualties in the war continue to mount, with July marking one of the deadliest months for civilians on both sides since the full-scale war began. And they are another example of how attacks far beyond the front lines are taking their toll on ordinary people,” she said.
Air defences and humanitarian aid
The strikes prompted renewed pledges of support from European allies.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he would accelerate deliveries of military equipment and missiles to Ukraine and confirmed France’s willingness to license domestic missile production, following a call with Zelenskyy.
Macron said he expressed his “horror” and “emotion”, adding that Russia was seeking to “break Ukraine through terror”.
“With these strikes and those this week against Kyiv, Russia is continuing and intensifying the crime of its aggression,” Macron added on X.
Ukraine is expected to receive the new Italo-French SAMP/T-NG missile defence system, which is believed to be capable of downing ballistic missiles. Prior to the attack, the shipments were not expected to arrive in Ukraine before spring 2027, according to European diplomats.
The French president said he and Zelenskyy also discussed preparations for a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” scheduled for Monday.
“It is essential that all countries with capabilities at their disposal also join this effort,” Macron posted on X, adding that France would continue cooperation under the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, who was visiting Kyiv on Saturday, also sharply criticised the shopping centre attack, condemning Putin for increasing the “intensity of war” and “deliberately terrorising civilians”.
At a news conference, Wadephul announced additional humanitarian aid for Ukraine, pledging an additional $58m, which will go to the United Nations agencies and NGOs focused on people residing near the front lines.
Zelenskyy said he discussed preparations for the upcoming winter with Wadephul, as Russia is expected to renew its relentless attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid.
Germany is expected to pay about another $12m into a NATO fund to strengthen Ukraine’s energy networks and systems for defending against drones, Wadephul said.
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The March 2026 Strikes
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The official CIA station located within the U.S. Embassy compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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A separate, covert facility located in eastern Iraq.
Vectors of Suspected Russian Assistance
Analytical Caveats
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Artificial Intelligence & Strategic Defense
Intelligence Oversight & Structural Reforms
Counterintelligence & Espionage
⚠️ Middle East & Economic Warfare
- Economic “D-Day” Counter-Measures: The United States has initiated a massive economic crackdown targeting the Iranian regime’s oil smuggling networks, front companies, and international maritime shipping. Foreign banks and corporations providing secondary assistance face severe U.S. sanctions. [2, 4]
- Strait of Hormuz Deadlock: Tensions remain at a peak due to Iran’s continued blockade threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Military observers report ongoing strikes and active counter-proxy operations across the theater. [1, 4, 6]
📌 South Asia & Eastern Europe Friction Points
- Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: India’s government has suspended the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. While Pakistan issues retaliatory threats, India has moved forward with building multiple regional hydropower projects along the Chenab river tunnel. [5]
- Mass Terror Operative Arrests: Indian domestic intelligence operations successfully thwarted a major planned cross-border assault, arresting over 200 terror suspects across 14 states. Large quantities of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and weaponry were seized. [7]
- North Korean Drone Support: Intelligence reports verified that North Korea has expanded its military assistance to Russia, deploying specialized drone operators directly into active combat theaters. [2]
- Black Sea Intercepts: Romanian jet fighters successfully intercepted and destroyed a naval drone operating dangerously close to a Black Sea gas platform to mitigate critical infrastructure infrastructure risk. [2]
🔎 Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity Controls
- Mandatory AI Cybersecurity Testing: Moving away from a purely deregulatory approach, the White House has issued an executive order mandating advanced cybersecurity vetting for powerful next-generation AI models. [3]
- 30-Day Vetting Protocols: Leading AI developers must now submit advanced coding and autonomous systems to federal agencies—including the Department of Defense and Homeland Security—for a 30-day evaluation window to identify structural vulnerabilities before public release. [3]
- Defense Procurement Strain: A comprehensive review of the U.S. Defense Research Enterprise exposed significant friction points. Government procurement cycles are falling behind commercial tech advancement paces, creating “predictable obsolescence” in fields like AI and cloud computing. [8]
