Month: August 2026

#Trump-ian Spurs of the Moment as the  #tool of the efficient  #ForeignPolicy
Gemini:
Trumpian Foreign Policy: Unpredictability’s Efficiency  share.gemini.google/0C4k2Due…
I am unable to directly access the specific post by Jason Brodsky due to platform restrictions on automated browsing. However, the premise you’ve highlighted—”Trumpian Spurs of the Moment as the tool of the efficient Foreign Policy”—presents a fascinating framework for evaluating how unpredictability functions in modern statecraft. Given Brodsky’s role as a policy director focused on the Middle East and Iranian deterrence, the concept likely touches on how sudden executive actions disrupt adversary planning.

Treating impulsive or highly unconventional executive actions as an intentional policy tool fundamentally reshapes the strategic environment. At its core, this approach weaponizes systemic uncertainty. Traditional intelligence gathering and open-source methodologies rely heavily on pattern recognition, historical precedent, and the assumption of rational, predictable escalation ladders. When a leader acts on the “spur of the moment,” it deliberately introduces severe information gaps. Adversary analysts and leadership are forced into a reactionary posture, complicating their strategic analytical reasoning because they can no longer confidently model the U.S. decision-making process.

This modern iteration of the “Madman Theory” can sometimes yield tactical advantages by freezing adversary aggression out of fear of a disproportionate or entirely left-field response. By maximizing the cognitive challenges of processing information in a highly volatile environment, the strategy demands that opponents constantly second-guess their own intelligence assessments.

However, evaluating the actual efficiency of this tool requires looking at its impact on institutional frameworks. While injecting volatility might keep adversaries off balance, it simultaneously stresses the operational efficiency of domestic national security agencies. These institutions are built on complex legislative frameworks, established doctrines, and deep interagency coordination. Sudden, spur-of-the-moment policy shifts often bypass these structures, forcing military and intelligence apparatuses to rapidly adjust operations or force posture without the benefit of standard planning cycles. The trade-off for external unpredictability is frequently internal friction, which can test the structural dynamics of the agencies tasked with executing the policy.

To give a more precise assessment of how this dynamic applies to the specific geopolitical event Brodsky is referencing, could you share the text or the main takeaway from his post?
–
x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2…Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky)”Israel thought it was an attempt to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security, but eventually military and diplomatic officials were able to reach their American counterparts to verify that Trump had indeed changed his mind about the strike.”

“Israel believes Trump could change his mind in an instant, and Israeli forces remain on high alert, reports Channel 12.”

timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…—  https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2084041155910476026

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

Trumpian Foreign Policy: Unpredictability’s Efficiency  share.gemini.google/0C4k2Due…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

News Review: Ukraine Intelligence Overhaul: President Volodymyr  #Zelenskiy announced that Rustem  #Umerov, Ukraine’s top negotiator in U.S.-backed talks with  #Russia, will be appointed as the new Chief of Foreign Intelligence.  thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

Ukraine’s Intelligence-Diplomacy Merger  share.gemini.google/s5mPK78J…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

Rustem Umerov
share.google/aimode/sihUGX5z…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

Ukraine’s top negotiator Umerov to head foreign intelligence service | Reuters  reuters.com/world/europe/ukr…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

rustem umerov – Google Search  google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJz…
reuters.com/world/europe/ukr…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

Ukraine Intelligence Overhaul: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s top negotiator in U.S.-backed talks with Russia, will be appointed as the new Chief of Foreign Intelligence.
share.google/aimode/Gtj8hpcX…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026

#Iran Suspected in US Water  #Cyberattacks – AI Report
share.gemini.google/iHbnFecd…
Gemini: Recent reports indicate a series of cyberattacks targeting water systems across multiple US states, including Michigan and Minnesota, prompting investigations by the  #FBI. While the FBI has not publicly identified the culprit, intelligence agencies suspect Iranian hackers may be responsible.

Here is a breakdown of the situation:

The Scope of the Attacks

The attacks have targeted operational technology at local water systems:

Minnesota: Over 30 community water systems were affected by cyberattacks earlier in the week. In the city of Braham, an attack forced the water plant offline by shutting down operating controls for the well and treatment plant, leaving the city temporarily reliant on its water tower. In Plymouth, water infrastructure communications were disrupted but restored.
Michigan: Nine water systems were impacted following a federal cyber alert regarding attempts to tamper with operational technology.
Broader Impact: Reports suggest at least five other unidentified states have also been targeted, with attacks hitting water systems in at least seven states total.

Importantly, officials in both Michigan and Minnesota have stated that all systems continued to operate safely without significant issues, and there have been no known impacts posing a public health concern or issues with water quality.

The Investigation and Suspects

The FBI, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and other federal agencies are actively investigating the breaches.

While no formal attribution has been made, officials have pointed toward a tentative finding that Iran is behind the intrusions. This assessment is reportedly based on the methods employed and the lack of any ransom demand. However, investigators have not ruled out the possibility of a separate actor mimicking Iranian methods to inflame tensions.

The recent incidents follow warnings from the FBI and CISA that Iranian hackers have been targeting water and wastewater systems, as well as operational controls in other critical infrastructure sectors. Iran’s interest in US water systems has historical precedent, notably a 2016 cyberattack targeting a small dam near New York City, for which a group of Iranian hackers was charged by the Justice Department.

Vulnerabilities in Local Infrastructure

Local water plants and healthcare facilities are often considered vulnerable targets for cyberattacks. These facilities frequently lack the necessary funding and expertise to install the latest software patches or implement robust security measures, making them relatively easy to penetrate. CISA has urged utilities to implement stronger access controls and remove programmable logic controllers from direct internet exposure to mitigate these risks.
–

AI Mode:
share.google/aimode/e1ZzDfvg…
The FBI and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are actively investigating a coordinated wave of cyberattacks targeting municipal water and wastewater infrastructure across at least seven U.S. states, with Minnesota and Michigan confirming breaches. Federal intelligence agencies and cybersecurity experts strongly suspect that Iran or Iranian-affiliated threat groups, such as CyberAv3ngers, are behind the campaign. The hackers are executing opportunistic, remote intrusions by exploiting internet-connected operational technologies, prompting urgent nationwide security directives. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
The Scope of the Attacks

Minnesota: Targeted over 30 community water systems spanning a two-day period, forcing the state to activate its incident response capabilities. [5, 7]
Michigan: Confirmed breaches at 9 municipal water systems following a federal cyber alert. [2]
Other States: At least seven states total have reported incidents, including a confirmed attack on wastewater lift stations in Rapid City, South Dakota. [3, 7]
Public Safety: State officials emphasize that all systems continue to operate safely, and there is no indication that the physical safety or quality of drinking water has been compromised. [2, 7]

Attack Vectors and Tactics

Target Devices: Hackers targeted internet-exposed Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs), which regulate physical operations like water flow, pressure, and chemical levels. [3, 8]
System Disruption: Intruders bypassed security, changed administrative passwords, altered IP addresses, and locked out official personnel. [8, 9]
Physical Impacts: “The agency has for months been warning the public that Iran may seek to compromise water utilities and other critical infrastructure… the hacking activity, it added, had ‘resulted in boil water notices and sustained manual operations.’” as documented by The New York Times. Some targeted systems suffered localized flooding and loss of water pressure. [3, 4, 6]
No Ransom Demands: Because the attackers have not demanded financial ransoms, intelligence officials assess the primary motive is geopolitical disruption rather than financial gain. [4, 10]

Federal Response and Mitigations
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has ordered all water utility administrators to immediately audit their digital footprints, change default factory passwords, and entirely disconnect vulnerable operational controllers from the public internet. [1, 6, 11]
–

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Aug 3, 2026