RT by @mikenov: RT by @mikenov: 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 Ukraine’s recent campaign may have done more than just damage Russia’s economy/energy sector… It could be bringing us closer to finding out whether Moscow’s ambitions REALLY end with Ukraine. With refineries burning, fuel shortages growing, and key shipping routes disrupted, the pressure on the Kremlin is mounting. And when backed into a corner, Putin has historically escalated rather than compromised. Imagine a scenario where Russia picked a fight with a smaller NATO member, like Latvia or Lithuania. It would likely start with deniable incursions, border incidents, cyberattacks, or the seizure of small pieces of territory, just enough to leave

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 Ukraine’s recent campaign may have done more than just damage Russia’s economy/energy sector…

It could be bringing us closer to finding out whether Moscow’s ambitions REALLY end with Ukraine.

With refineries burning, fuel shortages growing, and key shipping routes disrupted, the pressure on the Kremlin is mounting.

And when backed into a corner, Putin has historically escalated rather than compromised.

Imagine a scenario where Russia picked a fight with a smaller NATO member, like Latvia or Lithuania.

It would likely start with deniable incursions, border incidents, cyberattacks, or the seizure of small pieces of territory, just enough to leave NATO arguing over whether Article 5 applies.

And that is where NATO’s biggest weakness comes in.

It doesn’t act by instinct; it acts by political consensus.

32 governments have to agree not only that an attack has occurred, but on how far they’re willing to go in response.

The more ambiguous the attack, the easier it becomes for national interests to pull that consensus apart.

If NATO hesitates, the frontline state faces an impossible choice: accept the instigations, or escalate on its own and hope help comes later.

Russia doesn’t need to defeat NATO militarily.

It just needs to prove that, when the costs become real, the alliance won’t agree on who should bear them.

Source: WarFronts (YT) / Writers: Mhedi, Michael

— @MarioNawfal Jul 15, 2026