Putin knows more than we realize

“I am almost certain we’ll come to a social crisis…under the current macroeconomic policy being pursued, the economy will stop, and society is unlikely to accept it.”

These are the words of Andrei Klepach, the chief economist of Russia’s state development bank (VEB), at a Moscow meeting of top economists and scientists in May. There, he delivered a scathing report on the Kremlin’s monetary policy, predicted Moscow will be more dependent on Beijing than it ever was on Europe, and openly admitted Russia is losing the technological and economic battle to Ukraine.

And nothing happened. For three months, Klepach continued his work at VEB undisturbed—until Russian media got a hold of the contents of his report last week. By Sunday, he was gone.

A common Western assumption is that Vladimir Putin is shielded from bad news by subordinates too afraid to tell him what he doesn’t want to hear. But the Russian president was clearly aware of this dire prognosis, fielded by one of the nation’s leading economists, before the media cottoned on.